Context: For the first time, a report- Mid- Monsoon 2019 Lightning Report- has mapped lightning strikes across the country, and the lives they have claimed.

It has been prepared by Climate Resilient Observing Systems Promotion Council (CROPC), a non-profit organisation that works closely with India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Lightning strikes have caused at least 1,311 deaths in the four-month period between April and July this year.

Need for and significance of forecasts:

• It is possible to predict, 30-40 minutes in advance, when a lightning strike heads towards Earth.
• The prediction is possible through study and monitoring of the in-cloud lightning strikes. Timely dissemination of this information can save several lives.

What is lightning, and how does it strike?

It is a very rapid — and massive — discharge of electricity in the atmosphere, some of which is directed towards the Earth’s surface. These discharges are generated in giant moisture-bearing clouds that are 10-12 km tall.

How does it strike?

1. The base of these clouds typically lies within 1-2 km of the Earth’s surface, while their top is 12-13 km away. 
2. Temperatures towards the top of these clouds are in the range of minus 35 to minus 45 degrees Celsius.
3. As water vapour moves upward in the cloud, the falling temperature causes it to condense. Heat is generated in the process, which pushes the molecules of water further up.
4. As they move to temperatures below zero degrees celsius, the water droplets change into small ice crystals. They continue to move up, gathering mass — until they are so heavy that they start to fall to Earth.
5. This leads to a system in which, simultaneously, smaller ice crystals are moving up and bigger crystals are coming down.
6. Collisions follow, and trigger the release of electrons — a process that is very similar to the generation of sparks of electricity. As the moving free electrons cause more collisions and more electrons, a chain reaction ensues.
7. This process results in a situation in which the top layer of the cloud gets positively charged, while the middle layer is negatively charged.
8. The electrical potential difference between the two layers is huge — of the order of a billion to 10 billion volts. In very little time, a massive current, of the order of 100,000 to a million amperes, starts to flow between the layers.
9. An enormous amount of heat is produced, and this leads to the heating of the air column between the two layers of the cloud. This heat gives the air column a reddish appearance during lightning. As the heated air column expands, it produces shock waves that result in thunder.

How does this current reach the Earth from the cloud?

While the Earth is a good conductor of electricity, it is electrically neutral. However, in comparison to the middle layer of the cloud, it becomes positively charged. As a result, about 15%-20% of the current gets directed towards the Earth as well. It is this flow of current that results in damage to life and property on Earth.

There is a greater probability of lightning striking tall objects such as trees, towers or buildings. Once it is about 80-100 m from the surface, lightning tends to change course towards these taller objects. This happens because air is a poor conductor of electricity, and electrons that are travelling through air seek both a better conductor and the shortest route to the relatively positively charged Earth’s surface.