Context- According to a recent report Value of European agriculture could fall 16% in 30 years due to drought and higher rainfall

Across Europe, the overall economic loss to agriculture from climate change is likely to be as high as 16% by 2050, though there will be large regional variations, and some crops will be hit harder than others.

What report says

• Summer 2019 was the 12th warmest on record since 1910, but was also relatively wet. Previously hot summers have been largely dry but this was the seventh wettest overall in a series dating back to 1910.”
• Wet weather in the summer poses a problem for farmers, as early in the summer it can disrupt crop development and later on crops such as grains and some fruit and vegetables require a dry period for ripening before harvest.
• While southern Europe has been worst affected by droughts and excess heat, which can inhibit the growth of crops – and the report forecast land prices in the region could drop by 80% by the end of the century as a result – the main dangers for the north are in extremes of weather and sudden disasters such as flooding. Hundreds of homes were evacuated in Lincolnshire in June after some areas of England received a month’s worth of rain within a few days.
• The EEA assessment found a “cascade of impacts”, whereby a changing climate affected yields and the quality of the end produce, and this in turn made a big difference to prices, trade patterns and the viability of farms. This could lead to the intensification of agriculture in some areas and the abandonment of farms in others.
• This year’s wet summer came after last year’s record-breaking drought, which had left soils parched. Scotland had its second wettest summer in the recent record, as northern areas of the UK were hit by heavy rainfall in August, but southern England and Wales had heavy rainfall in June. The wettest counties – Cheshire, Northumberland and Derbyshire – had 173% to 179% more rainfall than the long-term average.

Need to do

• Much more must be done to adapt by the sector itself, especially at farm level, and future EU policies need to be designed in a way to facilitate and accelerate transition in this sector.
• Need greater emphasis on measures to help farmers adapt to higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, through changing their practices, diversifying their crops, saving water and using technology such as weather data more effectively.
• Precision farming, whereby fertilisers and pesticides are used in small amounts rather than widely sprayed, can also help, along with the use of crops adapted to hotter conditions, and more emphasis on the benefits of forestry.
• Farmers to get help to adapt to the effects of heating, as well as help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Farmers are at the frontline and seeing impacts already. Resilience is key and soil health must be at the heart of that. Soils hold three times more carbon than the atmosphere, and are vital for drought and flood protection
• Government to support farmers to move to more environmentally benign agriculture, which he said would have beneficial effects on wildlife and the natural world as well as on human health. 

What past studies says on impact of climate change

• While some mid latitude and high latitude areas will initially benefit from higher agricultural production, for many others at lower latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions, the increases in temperature and the frequency of droughts and floods are likely to affect crop production negatively, which could increase the number of people at risk from hunger and increased levels of displacement and migration. ?
• While some have pointed to longer growing seasons and a wider range of crops becoming viable in northern Europe as benefits from temperature rises, the effects on rainfall and extreme conditions mean farming is already suffering.

Impact of Climate change on Indian agriculture

• Decrease in Productivity :
  • The decrease in productivity of major crops will be marginal in the next few years but it could fall to as much as 10-40% by 2100 unless farming adapts to climate change-induced changes in weather.
  • Major crops such as wheat, rice, oilseeds, pulses, fruits and vegetables will see reduced yields over the years.
  • It will force farmers to either adapt to challenges of climate change or face the risk of getting poorer.
  • It could turn India into a major importer of oilseeds, pulses and even milk.
  • Adaptation to climate change will need different cropping patterns and suitable inputs to compensate yield fluctuations.
• Food Security :
  • Vulnerability of Indian agriculture due to vagaries associated with climate change and low adaptation capacity of majority of Indian farmers poses risk to food security of the country.
  • By 2030, India may need 70 million tonnes more of food grains than the expected production in 2016-17.
• Projected food demand :
  • The ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research has projected food demand of 345 million tonnes (MT) by 2030- almost 30% higher than in 2011.
  • The projected demands for fruits, vegetables, milk, animal products (meat, eggs and fish), sugar and edible oil, by 2030 is estimated to be 2-3 times more than that in 2011.
• Economic Losses :
  • According to the economic survey estimates, India currently incurs losses of about $9-10 billion annually due to extreme weather events.
  • Of these, nearly 80% losses remain uninsured.
  • The quantum of losses are going to increase substantially in future if one takes into account the impact of climate change on farm productivity.
• Improve in Yields :
  • Though there is possibility of decrease in yields of certain crops in traditional sown areas due to climate change but it may increase elsewhere due to change in weather pattern.
  • Though most crops will see reduced production, but climate change may also help improve yields of soybean, chickpea, groundnut, coconut (western coast) and potato (in Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh)