Introduction:

The rise of India and China as two major economic and political actors in both regional and global politics has caught global attention. The two emerging and enduring powers representing two modes of civilization signify a complex and dynamic relationship in world politics. China’s support for Pakistan’s position on Kashmir at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has once again underscored the difficult trajectory of contemporary Sino-Indian relations. By backing Pakistan’s request for the UNSC to discuss India’s latest move, China has signalled its priorities and made any normalization of ties almost impossible.

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Challenges in Sino-Indian relations:

• India’s consolidation of autonomy over Ladakh – and by extension Aksai Chin – will set up a new challenge as the two countries continue a dialogue on the border dispute. The 22nd round of that process should take place later this year.
• China’s response is also driven by its wider interests as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has pushed China to be even more aggressive on Kashmir.
• With China reportedly planning to set up a permanent military base in Pakistan for CPEC, India should be prepared for greater Chinese meddling on this matter.
• For years, even as New Delhi and Beijing had temporary crises along their border, including the 2017 stand-off over an obscure patch of Bhutanese territory known as Doklam, their dialogue has mostly continued.
• While no final resolution of the border dispute was imminent, the two sides were heading toward a crystallisation of the old status quo, with India likely making concessions on Aksai Chin, and China on the eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.
• However, with India’s abrogation of Article 370, Beijing may find itself toeing an uncompromising line on the border – taking what is certain to be a less compromising stance than before.
• In particular, China’s claim over Tawang, a town in Arunachal Pradesh, is likely to harden as a result of India’s reorganisation of Ladakh.
• Moreover, Tawang’s prominence in the border dispute may take on special importance in post Dalai Lama era, setting up a succession crisis between a Beijing-anointed successor and a legitimate successor outside Tibet.
• In the near term, we may also expect Beijing to push the envelope along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) – the demarcation separating Indian-administered areas from Chinese-administered ones.
• With its move on article 370, India will have to concern itself with both of its disgruntled neighbors.
• While the situation with Pakistan will remain more acute in the coming days, India just made the task of finding a lasting solution to the border dispute with China a lot more complicated.

Possible solutions:

• India is not without options and has shown it’s not shy of using them.
• Continued engagement, both bilaterally and in multilateral forums such as BRICS, SCO and the Russia-India-China trilateral, in order to maintain overall stability, deepen economic ties, and foster diplomatic cooperation on regional and international issues.
• India has also sustained efforts to enhance its military and deterrent capabilities.
• The new external balancing effort: The evolution of India-US relations in particular but also of India’s relationships with Japan and Australia as well as the quadrilateral cooperation among them indicates a growing convergence in their views regarding stability in the Indo-Pacific region particularly with respect to China’s intentions in laying territorial claims to more than 80 per cent of the South China Sea as well as to the sovereign territories of India and Japan.
• China can’t expect that its priorities on trade and 5G would be considered favourably by India if it continues to challenge the fundamentals of good neighbourly ties.
• If China is so aggressive on Kashmir, then nothing stops India from raking up issues like Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Tibet and Taiwan remain Chinese vulnerabilities.
• China should realize that there is no major constituency left in India today that has a favourable view of China.
• If China has a long-term strategy of containing India within South Asia, then India can just as easily adopt a strategy of challenging China’s core interests.

Conclusion:

It is clear that both India and China want to maintain the Wuhan Spirit especially given the multiple tensions and uncertainties that both countries face internationally and domestically.