India’s external environment hardly lends itself to stability, and this is demonstrated with particular urgency by the 2009 Failed State Index. According to the index, 25 of the 60 states most at risk of failure are located in Asia. Significantly, every country that shares India’s borders is among those countries listed—Afghanistan ranks 7th; Pakistan, 10th; Myanmar, 13th; Bangladesh, 19th; Sri Lanka, 22nd; Nepal, 25th; Bhutan, 48th; and China, 57th.6 South Asia is also the new epicenter of global terror—with “Af-Pak” at its core and Bangladesh vying for an honorable mention.

India has the disadvantage of being situated in close proximity to what is being described as “the epicenter of global terrorism. Tribal region near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border is constantly drawing attention of America’s Global War on Terror (GWOT) since 2001.

India’s increasing relevance to the US strategic canvas, troubled relationship with Pakistan since the independence of the country, deteriorating and unpredictable relationship with China, unstable political climate in Nepal along with Maoist insurgency, mistrustful relationship with Bangladesh, civil-war ravaged and still-healing Sri Lanka, authoritarian Myanmar have rendered any fair estimation of Indian preparedness to deal with these security challenges an onerous task.

Trans-border migration from Bangladesh is a major factor for the problems in Assam and other areas of the North East. The point that Bangladesh immigrants are a source of communal and ethnic tension was well proved by the Assam agitation and subsequent events. There are estimated to be 15 to 18 million illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in India, who have spread to all the North Eastern States with bulk of them being in Assam. A fair proportion of these estimated to be 3 to 5 million have spread to the other eastern states of Bihar and West Bengal and in the North to Delhi and beyond. The influx is likely to continue unless checked and those already identified are deported. Their transgression into land and providing cheap labour is a cause of social and economic insecurity for local communities and a cause of tension and violence. Presence of large number of illegal Bangladeshi Muslims provide a fertile support base for subversive activities. The growth of communal organizations like Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), Students Islamic, Sevak Sangh (ISS) and All India Mili Council provides impetus to Pan Islamic sentiment, which is vulnerable to exploitation by Pakistan.

Proxy War: Along with Kashmir, ISI is increasingly targeting the minority community in the Southern states to subvert their loyalty, while Karnataka and Kerala  have become prone to smuggling, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have been targetted for subversion. Communal disturbances in different parts of Tamilnadu and bomb blasts in Madras and Coimbatore bear witness to ISI complicity. The appointment of former ISI Chief Lt. Gen. Javed Nasir as chairman of Pakistan’s Sri Gurdwara Prabandhak Committee (SGPC) clearly outlines Pakistan’s design to revive Sikh Militancy.

Incidents of terrorism: In recent years, there have been several instances of multiple coordinated bomb blasts in cities like Mumbai, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Bangalore and Ahmedabad. Many of these attacks are orchestrated by fundamentalist Islamic groups, such as the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), Jaishe-Mohammad (JeM) and the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI). The urban focus of these groups’ stands in contrast to the separatist movements and left-wing extremism described earlier, which are concentrated in rural areas.

Narco-Terrorism: In the North East, the Siliguri corridor with its porous borders along Bangladesh and Nepal has become a major conduit for ISI subversive activities.  The mushrooming of madarsas along the Indo – Nepal and Indo – Bangladesh borders is a design contrived by ISI with the help of sympathetic elements in Bangladesh to step up subversive activities in the North East. The Muslim pockets have become the breeding ground for mafia, smugglers, gun running, and hawala transactions. Narco-trafficking, influx of fake Indian currency and terrorist activities. Bangladesh has also become a nodal point for transshipments of arms and ammunition acquired by the North East insurgents from the arms bazars in South East Asia.

With the ‘Golden Crescent’, and the ‘Golden Triangle’ in India’s neighbourhood, drug trafficking poses yet another threat to our security. Drug syndicates are generating huge funds, a part of which is being used to give financial support to some of these subversive groups. The intelligence agencies like the ISI are recruiting a number of ‘carriers’ in drug trafficking as their agents. These agencies provide legal immunity for their criminal activities in their own country in addition to giving them financial and logistical support. Internal security challenges are not confined to any one area, but the North-East, Jammu and Kashmir, and the areas afflicted by Left extremism deserve special mention.