Context: As per the latest UN report, India is expected to displace China as the most populous country in the world by mid-2023. 

• China is projected to hand over the baton of the most populous country to India by mid­2023. But for India, there are greater prospects for demographic advantage than serious concerns.

Background

• As per the UN Report, by mid-2023, India is expected to have a population of 142.86 crores while China’s population is expected to be 142.57 crores. 

• However, because of the postponement of the Census 2021 exercise, it has become difficult to predict exactly when this change in demographic order would take place.

• In this context, there exists a need for deeper analysis of the issue from an empirical and scientific perspective and to understand the nature of population growth, size and its composition.

Population Attributes

• The population as a resource- Population is a resource as long as the country’s carrying capacity is intact.

• Concept of carrying capacity- Carrying capacity is not just per capita availability of natural resources; it is a dynamic concept which changes according to changing technology, and the efficiency of the production and consumption systems of a country.

• Population composition- Looking at the population composition of India, there are greater prospects for a demographic dividend than a disaster. The country continues to have a demographic window of opportunity for the next 35 years to reap an economic dividend.

• Population growth in India: India has achieved replacement level fertility as a total fertility rate of 2.0 in 2023 i.e. two children replacing their parents. 

• This suggests that the population in India is stabilising.

• India’s population growth is expected to increase in a decelerated mode until 2064, after which the growth is predicted to become negative 

• India’s peak population size is estimated to be about 169.6 crores in 2063.

• Population size: The total population size is usually assumed to be the number of mouths to feed.

• Experts believe that huge reliance on total population size can be grossly misleading.

• They say that there is a need to take into account the “age composition” of the population as it indicates the available “support ratios” that provide an idea about the number of the working age population (i.e. individuals aged 15 to 64) as compared to the number of dependent population (i.e. Children below 14 years and adults aged 65 and above).

Mechanisms that translate a demographic bonus to economic dividend

• Employment or job creation- If India is able to generate su?cient and quality jobs for its bulging working age population, realisation of demographic dividend will become a reality.

• Education- Education, skills generation and ensuring a healthy lifespan by preventing diseases and disabilities are also important channels that translate demographic opportunity into economic gains.

• Governance- Good governance is another important aspect for reaping demographic dividend as it helps in creating a healthy environment for increasing e?ciency and productivity of the population.

Road Ahead

• Relatively younger population- A relatively younger population of India provides higher support ratios — there is lesser disease, disability and caring burden.

• Boost to GDP- Available demographic opportunity in the form of a greater share of the working age population has the potential to boost per capita GDP by an additional 43% by 2061.

• Need of the hour- The country needs an enabling environment that can provide high quality education, good health care, respectable employment opportunities, good infrastructure, and gender empowerment.

Conclusion

• India should adopt key mechanisms such as policies to provide high-quality education, improved health care, employment opportunities, better infrastructure, and ensure gender equality in order to translate a demographic bonus into economic dividend. 

• If India mismanages or fails to bring about changes with respect to the mentioned key mechanisms, then the “demographic dividend” could potentially become a “demographic disaster”.