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In terms of the UK economy, the situation still remains uncertain and remains is highly dependent on how the pandemic evolves over the next few months and more importantly, how governments, households, businesses and financial markets respond to this change.

There remains an assumption, despite the tabloid headlines, that the social distancing measures will remain in place for some time and will be relaxed gradually during the summer.

In addition, critical government support programmes – such as the furloughing of employees under the job retention scheme – are likely to stay in place for the next couple of months before again being wound down, probably sector by sector.

Clearly social distancing has led to a sharp reduction in consumer spending as around 20% of this involves activities directly affected such as eating out at restaurants, holidays (hotels and air travel) and attending sporting or entertainment events.

The closure of many non-essential shops will also mean consumers are less likely to buy goods even if they are available online although spending in supermarkets has increased as people are eating and drinking more at home

Some of this decline in sales may be made up for later although much of this will depend on caution on the part of both households and businesses in returning, if at all, to normal economic activity and it is expected this will only happen gradually over the next year.

As a result, it is expected that there will be an unprecedented fall in GDP of over 30% in April-June 2020 although this will recover quickly over the next six months if social distancing measures are relaxed.

Unemployment is expected to rise to 9% by June and it will take some time, as in previous recessions, for this to decline. However, it could have been far worse if the companies had not been able to furlough over six million employees under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme.

In terms of those parts of the economy likely to be hardest hit, then the biggest impact (due to social distancing more than anything else) will be restaurants, hotels, personal services, air travel, tourism, culture, recreation and education. There will also be a negative effect on work-related activities such as spending on travel.