Context:

The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 highlights a concerning acceleration in global nuclear weapons development, with India now surpassing Pakistan in the number of nuclear warheads, though still trailing significantly behind China. The report warns of a deteriorating global arms control environment and the emergence of a new era of nuclear arms competition.

India’s Nuclear Posture and Developments

• Total Warheads: India holds approximately 180 nuclear warheads as of January 2025, overtaking Pakistan’s estimated arsenal.
• Modernization Efforts: India is advancing its delivery systems, notably developing canisterised missiles capable of carrying multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).
• Nuclear Triad: India’s nuclear capability is now considered a fully operational triad, with land-based missiles, air-launched weapons, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) from nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs).
• Strategic Posture Shift: There are signs that India may be moving away from its traditional de-alerted posture toward mating warheads with delivery systems in peacetime, reflecting a potential change in doctrine.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Capabilities

• Total Warheads: Estimated at 170 warheads as of January 2025.
• Expansion Trends: Pakistan continues to increase fissile material production and develop new delivery platforms.
• Doctrinal Focus: Its nuclear strategy remains India-centric, emphasizing short-range tactical nuclear weapons to deter conventional military threats.

China’s Expanding Arsenal

• Total Warheads: China possesses around 600 nuclear warheads, with its stockpile growing at a rate of approximately 100 warheads per year since 2023.
• ICBM Silos: Construction of roughly 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos has been observed across remote desert and mountainous regions.
• Postural Evolution: China appears to be moving toward keeping warheads mated with missiles during peacetime, marking a significant shift from its historically restrained stance.

Global Nuclear Forces Overview

• Global Stockpile: As of early 2025, there are 12,241 nuclear warheads worldwide, with about 9,614 in military stockpiles ready for potential use.
• Dominant Powers: The United States (5,177 warheads) and Russia (5,459 warheads) continue to control over 90% of global nuclear arsenals.
• Alert Status: Approximately 2,100 warheads are maintained on high operational alert, ready for immediate deployment.
• Universal Modernization: All nine recognized nuclear-armed states—including the UK, France, Israel, and North Korea—are actively upgrading or expanding their nuclear forces.
• Arms Control Breakdown: The impending expiration of the New START Treaty in 2026 without a replacement heightens the risk of unregulated arms build-up.

Escalating Risks and Strategic Tensions

• Regional Flashpoints: Tensions between India and Pakistan intensified in early 2025 following Operation Sindoor, involving strikes on sites with potential nuclear relevance, raising fears of escalation.
• Technological Disruptors: Advances in AI, cyberwarfare, space systems, and quantum computing are eroding the predictability of deterrence and increasing strategic instability.
• Escalation Dynamics: The combination of misinformation, faster decision cycles, and cyber vulnerabilities increases the risk of accidental or miscalculated nuclear use.
• Information Warfare: Disinformation campaigns and narrative manipulation during crises can distort threat perception, potentially leading to irrational escalation.

Policy Recommendations and Strategic Implications

• India’s Strategic Posture: New capabilities must be integrated with caution, ensuring that deterrence remains credible without provoking crisis instability.
• Dialogue and Diplomacy: There is an urgent need to revive bilateral and multilateral arms control talks and promote regional risk reduction mechanisms.
• Technological Sovereignty: Strengthening indigenous defence R&D is essential for sustaining strategic autonomy and a credible minimum deterrent.
• Global Engagement: India, as a responsible nuclear actor, should take a leadership role in global non-proliferation forums and advocate for restraint and disarmament.

Conclusion

The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 paints a sobering picture of an accelerating nuclear arms race against a backdrop of eroding arms control agreements. India’s nuclear modernization is occurring within this shifting global landscape and must be guided by prudence, stability, and international responsibility. The future of nuclear security hinges not just on warhead counts, but increasingly on technology, misinformation, and the speed of crisis decision-making.

 Previous year question

1. The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by our adversaries across the borders. to ferry arms / ammunitions, drugs, etc., is a serious threat to the internal security. Comment on the measures being taken to tackle this threat. (2023)