Japanese brokerage firm Nomura has projected a moderation in India's GDP growth rate to 6.2% in FY26, down from 6.5% in FY25 and a high of 9.2% in FY24.

The report highlights a growing divergence between strong tax collections and weakening indicators like auto sales and credit growth. It also attributes the slowdown to a potential delay in the investment cycle amid global economic uncertainty and domestic demand normalization. Despite the lowered forecast, Nomura remains confident in India’s broader macroeconomic stability and strong equity market outlook.

Key Points:

• Nomura forecasts India's GDP to grow at 6.2% in FY26, a decline from 6.5% in FY25 and 9.2% in FY24.
• The firm points to slower growth in key indicators like auto sales and credit, despite robust GST revenues.
• Global uncertainties are expected to delay private investments, contributing to the economic deceleration.
• RBI, in contrast, maintains a more optimistic growth projection of 6.5% for FY26.
• Nomura raised its Nifty 50 target to 26,140 for March 2026, showing continued confidence in India's long-term economic resilience.