Context

Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan convened an informal trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the 9th China-South Asia Exposition and the 6th China-South Asia Cooperation Forum held in Kunming, China.

Highlights of the Meeting

According to an official release, the three countries engaged in discussions grounded in mutual trust, understanding, and a shared vision for regional peace, prosperity, and stability.

Key areas identified for collaboration included:

• Infrastructure development
• Regional connectivity
• Trade and investment
• Healthcare and agriculture
• Maritime cooperation
• Information and Communication Technology (ICT)
• Disaster management and climate change mitigation

Why This Trilateral Engagement Matters

China’s Strategic Calculations

• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Expansion: China aims to reinforce its BRI outreach in South Asia by aligning with regional players through economic and infrastructure partnerships.
• Counterbalancing the Indo-Pacific Strategy: The trilateral initiative is seen as a strategic response to the Indo-Pacific framework championed by the Quad (India, US, Japan, Australia).

Pakistan’s Interests

• Breaking Regional Isolation: Facing growing diplomatic isolation in South Asia, Pakistan views China as a dependable ally and sees the trilateral as a means to regain relevance.
• Engagement with Bangladesh: Partnering with Bangladesh allows Pakistan to interact with another key South Asian player, potentially reducing Indian influence in the region.

Bangladesh’s Strategic Hedging

• Balancing Major Powers: While traditionally close to India, Bangladesh is diversifying its foreign relations by engaging more deeply with China for investments and infrastructure support.
• Economic Incentives: China remains Bangladesh’s largest trading partner and a significant source of foreign direct investment, especially in energy and infrastructure sectors.

Geopolitical Implications

• Towards a Continental Bloc: This trilateral format could evolve into a China-centric strategic bloc in South Asia, serving as a counterbalance to India-led regional initiatives like BIMSTEC and BBIN.
• Chinese Maritime Outreach: If maritime cooperation is expanded in the Bay of Bengal, it would signify a growing Chinese presence in India’s maritime sphere of influence.
• Erosion of SAARC’s Relevance: With SAARC largely inactive due to India-Pakistan tensions, China appears to be shaping an alternative, China-led regional grouping.
• Strategic Infrastructure Concerns: China’s port investments in Chittagong (Bangladesh) and Gwadar (Pakistan) raise potential concerns over dual-use (civil-military) facilities, fueling fears of regional militarisation and India’s encirclement.

The Way Forward for India

• Strengthening Regional Groupings: India should intensify its engagement with sub-regional initiatives like BIMSTEC, BBIN, and IORA to counterbalance growing Chinese influence.
• Recalibrating Neighbourhood Policy: A forward-looking regional strategy must emphasize consistent economic support, respect for smaller nations’ sovereignty, and collaborative security arrangements.
• Enhancing Maritime Preparedness:
  • Expand QUAD naval exercises
  • Accelerate projects like Sagarmala and Project Mausam
  • Deepen maritime ties with Indian Ocean nations such as Seychelles, Mauritius, and Indonesia